教学随笔：价值投资者可以在Berkshire2025年年报中学习到的价投准则

2026年2月28日，Berkshire发布了自己2025年的年报。这一年年报中致股东的信，由巴菲特的接班人Abel执笔。与传统一致，在信的一开始给出了Berkshire的回报率与标准普尔500指数表现的比较表格。

注意，这个表格中的Berkshire的回报率在2014年之前，巴菲特是使用每股账面价值计算的。因为巴菲特认为市价容易受到市场情绪影响，所以他之前没有采用市价计算回报率。从2014年开始，增加了用市值计算的回报率指标，巴菲特在2014年年报中解释说：

“我们在业绩表中新增了伯克希尔股价的历史记录。短期看，市场价格有局限性；但长期看，股价与内在价值几乎必然趋同。”

2019年开始，Berkshire不再披露账面价值计算的指标，只披露市价口径的指标了（用A类股的市价）。

用市价来计算这个指标我想可能的原因是：市价口径下的指标要更好看一些；巴菲特一向认为US GAAP的某些会计处理使得会计数字不能准确表达内在价值；标准普尔500也是建立在市价基础上的；股东可能也更关心市价变化。

去年Berkshire的回报率10.9%，虽然不及标普500的17.9%，但也是一个及格的回报率。长期来看，Berkshire的回报率是非常优秀的，将近20%的年回报。

Abel上任后第一封致股东的信中，首先将他理解的公司的基本价值观写在了最前面。其中关于资本配置这里，Abel所写内容我觉得对于普通股民和价值投资者来说也是很有借鉴意义的。将其摘录如下：

Capital Discipline

We deploy our shareholders’ capital to opportunities that generate rewards commensurate with their risk. When we expand existing operations,acquire new operating businesses, invest in equity securities, and repurchase Berkshire stock, we evaluate each opportunity based on its potential to grow Berkshire’s intrinsic value per share over a time horizon measured in perpetuity.

Berkshire’s capital allocation principles and strategy guide us in identifying opportunities:

• Invest in businesses that we thoroughly understand, with durable advantages and long-term economic prospects;

• Partner with high integrity leaders who understand their customers and act like owners; 

• Avoid businesses that undermine the fabric of societyor could jeopardize Berkshire’s reputation;

• Act quickly and concentrate our capital in a few high conviction ideas; and

• Maintain discipline and let compounding unfold.

These criteria enable us to effectively and efficiently evaluate opportunities that come our way. ……

Many times in Berkshire’s history, some observers have suggested that our substantial cash position signals a retreat from investing. It does not. We continue to evaluate many opportunities and will remain patient and disciplined in pursuing the right ones for the benefit of our owners. ……

Share repurchases are another important capital allocation option. We will buy back Berkshire shares when they trade below our estimate of intrinsic value, conservatively determined, ensuring that repurchases enhance per-share value for continuing owners. We may also purchase large blocks of shares directly from major holders when the opportunity presents itself. These purchases allow shareholders to own an incrementally larger piece of Berkshire’s businesses, without deploying any additional capital of their own.

Our approach to cash dividends continues to be that Berkshire will not pay dividends so long as more than one dollar of market value for shareholders is reasonably likely to be created by each dollar of retained earnings. On an annual basis, the Board reviews our policy. Our capital discipline guides us, whether we seek to purchase an entire business, a portion of equity in a publicly traded company, or our own shares. We maintain this approach regardless of the size of our cash and U.S. Treasury holdings. We will assess value carefully, act patiently, and hold for the long term – preferably forever.

我们看到Berkshire在进行资本配置时（投资决策时）强调的这几点涉及：

第一， 在能力圈范围内决策。（当然，我们可以通过学习扩大自己的能力圈。）

第二， 被投资方经营者是诚信正直的人；

第三， 道德投资，心中有准绳；

第四， 集中投资；

第五， 长期投资。

Berkshire仍然会延续之前股票回购的做法，不会轻易发放现金股利。

日前看新闻，在最新财报发布后，Berkshire又重启了股票回购，该公司将根据市价和市场状况灵活执行股票回购。CEO Abel个人斥资约1530万美元买入21股A类股，并承诺任期内每年都将税后现金薪酬全额购买公司股票。

在巴菲特宣布退休（2025年5月）后A类股股价经历显著下跌。

2025年5月2日，812855美元；

2026年2月3日，682280美元；

2026年3月9日，745200美元；

短期内，公司股票回购+CEO持股，叠加之前股价已经深度回调，可能会使得它的估值吸引力提升。